tv Mc Laughlin Group CBS July 30, 2011 7:30pm-8:00pm EDT
from washington, "the mclaughlin group," the american original. for over two decades, the sharpest minds, best sources, hardest talk. issue one, too big to fail? >> i urge democrats and republicans in the senate to find common ground on a plan they can get support that can get support from both parties in the houses, a plan that i can sign by tuesday. >> okay, the economic stats n the second quarter of this year, april, may, june, the u.s. economy grew at a rate of
that's 4/10 every 1% growth. question, are these statistics a bigger worry than the debt ceiling prevailing argument? pat buchanan? >> they're equally big worries, john. despite the fact the president had an $800 billion stimulus fed is triple the money supply, three deficits of almost $5 trillion, the economy is dead in the water this. that argues for a stimulus of a reaganite stimulus or obama stimulus, but there's who more tools in the toolbox here. on the other side you have the debt deficit problem, which $10 trillion in deficits, which argues for austerity. spending cuts, taxations, so you've got two in total conflict. the president inherited aaron economy, john, that i think the
only way this thing will go forward is through the old stagflation of the post-nixon era. >> eleanor? >> they've got to raise the debt ceiling even if it takes the president invoking the 14th amendment of the constitution and doing it under his own authority. they've got to do that because the consequences of that, the numbers you just put up on the screen, would look rosie compared to what the economy would look like if we defaults. we take the world's global economy with us. >> who believes we'll do that? >> i do. i know michele bachmann doesn't. but defaulting on our debt would cause interest rates to go up, say bye-bye to your 401(k). it would have all kind of negative implications. but the sluggish economy i think is in part because washington doesn't work, and businesses are retracting, consumers are overly cautious. everybody is treading water. waiting to see what is going to happen. and pat's right, there not a lot of tools in the toolbox
left anymore. >> what do you think of this -- debt crisis? >> i think it's a very serious crisis because in a sense it's perhaps a longer term problem than if the sherm problem -- >> are they keeping it alive deliberate are you to keep something else away from these stats, that i just put on the board, are buried. and everyone is talking about the crisis with the debt ceiling. is that a calculated distraction to keep something else off the front page? you follow me? >> i don't think it makes sense for somebody to shoot off his foot and then say his leg is hurting him. that's what that would be the equivalent to. >> but who believes that will -- carry -- you know, that the deal is right there on the table. all they have do is take it. somebody is holding off. are they holding out on principle or because of political calculations? maybe for next year. >> it's both for sure. >> does it help obama -- to be so tenacious to his point of view? >> why do you think obama wants to make sure we don't have to
look at this again next year? >> no, the argument is he's keying the stats off page one by everyone being diverted to this. do you understand? he could calculate away out of a debt crisis! [everyone talking at once] >> everything is on page one at this stage. let me tell you why the stats are critical, because almost 20% of the american working force is really unemployed. >> that's the story! but that's not the story [everyone talking at once] >> i wonder! i wonder! >> not going away. >> this other thing will be kept alive artificially to keep these stats submerged. >> they're organic stories, john! >> the public can feel it, and that's what counts politically. they can feel it -- >> when you they read it, that's -- 0.4%. >> the fact is the debt ceiling is important, and you know why? because the business community -- prosperous folks out there like mort here, they want some stability. they want some predictability, and right now what we've got is
question marks here as to whether or not that 40% of our budget -- [everyone talking at once] >> we have a dysfunctional government that has to address -- >> you mean the illusion of dysfunction at? >> the herrer -- it's an art fish deal. it's an artificial argument! >> you joined the tea party, that's artificial! >> no, no. i'm not associating myself with tea party at all. i'm just saying that this is the clever way of submerging these awful stats that i just put on the board! >> downgrade >> i think the biggest problem the country has right now is not the budget deficit. i think the biggest problem the country has right now is the jobs. >> unemployment is the biggest problem --
question, how many jobs are needed to be created to restore full employment bit end of this decade? 2020. i ask you, pat. >> 10 to 15 million. because we've got a labor force that is growing at the same time you've got something like 24 million people who are unemployed or underemployed. half of those have to get back to work. so i say close to 20 million jobs will center to be created, john, in the next 10 years. >> you think this -- >> 20 million jobs is what clinton created in his years. and george w. bush had actually negative job growth. and when this president took office, we were still losing jobs. i think at the rate of 800,000 a month for those first several months. this job growth is extremely weak.
nobody is happy about it. but the awful truth is there isn't a lot that this government can do about it. maybe you have some secret ideas. >> no, they're not secret. there are a number of things that could be done. they should have been done at the beginning of the downturn. >> like what? >> like an infrastructure bank and get huge infrastructure programs underway. those are job multiple fliers, not just job savers. too much money was diverted by the congress to the cities and towns which basically helped the public service unions. these did not save jobs, okay? -- let me just finish. you have a real crisis on our hand. we all do. there's a huge unemployment number that jobs here are breaking up this economy, and breaking up families in a way that we have not seen in our lifetimes. maybe you coming from another century may have seen it. i did not. >> so this is the most important story. >> absolutely. the jobs are the most critical issue facing this country today. >> he's right on that. >> are you talking about, though -- i don't disagree, you're talking about a gigantic
stimulus package, we just had 800 billion, and everybody else is talking about cutting 3 trillion out of the budget! >> the president is stressing for that, he is also pressing for trade deals and they're all being blocked by a republican minority that is obsessed with cutting spending. and completely -- >> he did not ask for it when he needed it. and today what you get -- to deal with the problem -- >> could get out of the political system [everyone talking at once] >> what you have now, you have to have short-term stimulus and long-term deficit cuts. so you get that balanced, that program balanced, you can get through this crisis. not the way we're doing it. >> let me get this in here, excuse me. >> if you can bring that in, you've got my vote. >> magazine directed at you says, being unemployed -- harpers magazine, being unemployed raises a wop's risk of earth death by 37%. a man's risk by 78%. is long-term unemployment a health crisis? >> unemployment is unhealthy for children, adults if other
living things. >> shortens your life span! >> our whole economy -- our whole quality of life is dependent upon the economy. and this is what makes it such a salient political issue that tends to override all others, because the ability of people to either have or maintain the american dream is wrapped up in this. not to mention -- >> it doubles the odds of a premature death! what do you think of that? >> you know, look around -- >> it's just a figure? i hope nobody thinks that because think of the radiational effect that has on the population. >> only people i can think of -- >> it's such a downer! and it's going to be -- and and could be, it could be the -- what ruins his efforts -- >> everybody agrees, unemployment is bad. the argument is what to do about it. >> the question is whether or not it's go to crowd him out of a second term. >> not just him! >> exit question, what is the impact of this economic trend on president obama's re- election? 2012? i gave you the answer. 15 months from now, pat?
>> i think it currently is disastrous on the president because he's got this dote crisis and now this looks like he's going to have a terrible economy going into an election year and usually had means you don't get reelected. >> short-term, the president is winning the politics because comparatively he look better than the crowd on capitol hill. but he is vulnerable. any president who has got unemployment rate over 7% is vulnerable. >> mort. >> i think the unemployment rate is much worse than the american public knows. every family is affected, everybody knows somebody who is affected by it. i think that's the biggest issue facing this country in economic terms and in political terms. nobody could win an election with an unemployment rate that is really about 18%, not 9%. see that revision, january, fbi and march of this year? >> yes. >> what is it, 0.4%? >> yes. that's for one of the months. but for the quarter, excuse me. down from 1.9%. but that tells you we created virtually no net jobs!
>> why -- why is there such a gulf between those two statistics? >> well, the way they work -- >> .4? no gulf it's the economy flat in the water! >> no, the original statistic was 1.7, dropped to 0.4. that's a big drop! why that big cleavage? >> that's a huge -- very good question, john. that's an e norming change. >> did we have problem with the commerce department. >> they try to make the job numbers look as good as possible when they come out. when they -- >> you mean when they're bad, they try to make them look good? >> as good as possible. when they do revisions they find out the assumptions they made were inaccurate. they estimate how many jobs are created by companies that started. they estimate a certain number of startups, then they find out, guess what, they didn't have that number of startups. it's a statistical effort to make this, and they have overstated -- >> who is controlling their efforts to do that? is that just the instincts of
federal workers? [everyone talking at once] >> they're bureaucrats, they're professionals and they are doing the best they can. this is no more a conspiracy than the media extra that you seem to think -- know, this is politics! and it's not heal fum for his re-election. so a call comes from the white house. you can use a little different language to describe this? can you modify your terms? can you touch it up? what do you think? >> or bestselling thriller coming up! because let's -- >> come on. you know the reality. >> let's deal with reality here. what counts is not the numbers right now but the numbers next year. going into the election. especially that last three, four months. got to get some -- wear which we don't have now. every election is about either change or more of the same. he won on change. he's got to run now like fdr saying when we come back, all persons are created equal, at birth. labored breathing ]
america is free, and america is brave. but america is far from equal. the pure research center released this study that week that says that the wealth divide between white americans and black americans is very big and has widened to the largest gap in 25 years. here's the breakout. item, net wealth. white americans, $113,000. black americans, $5700. ratio, 20:1. item, net wealth lost during the ongoing recession.
white americans, 16% lost. black americans, 53% of wealth lost. that news came on top of the current unemployment numbers, the national rate for white americans is 8.1%. for black americans, 16.2%. president obama, the nation's first black president, is doing nothing about this, some believe. one of these so believers is princeton professor cornell west. >> i think he does have a predilection much more towards upper middle-class white brothers and jewish brothers and has a certain distancing from free black men who will tell him the truth, both with himself and what is going on in black communities, brown communities, red communes, and poor white and working class communities. >> west calls president obama a black mascot of wall street and a black puppet. also, professor west announced
he and talk-show host tavis smiley will begin a national poverty tour next month to sharpen the nation's awareness on what they call the failings of the president. african-americans at large agree with west and smiley. the president has dropped by more an 20 points with african- americans, from 77% last year to just over 50% this year. why? jobs. by the way, in 2008, the black volt for president obama was history making. 96% of blacks voted in favor of the obama-biden ticket, , over the mccain-palin ticket. question, what explains the disparity between net wealth for whites and net wealth for blacks? clarence? >> first let's distinguish between wealth and income. wealth includes income, property you own, your entire estates. the biggest fact or is real estate the last 25 years, from the mid-80s when we saw the real fruits of the 60s, with
the doubling of the growth of black middle-class, we just began to acquire some wealth. how and other properties in a sense. then the 90s and the lasts decade of the housing bubble -- yeah, and also about a third of the market over the lasts decade or so really subprime loans, a lot black folks took a harder hit on that than the white folks did. so that was why you saw this widening of the gap here in recent years. what can obama do about it? i think knowing cordell west, he would like to see some direct payments. that ain't going to happen. fact of the matter is obama is on the right course, which is a color-blind approach aimed at helping people based on income and opportunity, try to help people across racial lines, knowing that the need is in the black community so the black community will be held. >> amen. the hispanic community lost 66% of its wealth, and the reason
is the subprime mortgages wiped these folks out of their prime asset, which was houses. it went down -- look at the states where the subprime disaster hit. california, nevada, arizona, and florida. hispanic communities extremely heavy, then you go around the cities and the point and homes is important. but the white community lost 20,000 dollars per family, john. and i know that's a smaller amount, but everybody is being hammered, and i think clarence is right you ought to try to do policies for everyone. >> more time from this -- can recall [everyone talking at once] >> here's something for your column, clarence. national urban league policy institute respectable institute. >> very much so. >> the black middle-class has been set back 30 years by this economic crisis today. >> in terms of how -- >> 30 years! >> that's arguable. >> now do you recover from that? >> we recovered from worse, actually.
i'm optimistic and so are black points. the new book, end of anger, talks about how for the first time black information, are more optimistic about the long- term future in america than white folks are. >> who wrote the book? >> ellis koze who wrote a book years ago. but sherm we're all in trouble. >> the housing crisis is not limited to any particular community. during the great depression, housing prices went peak to trough went down by 31%. so far this time housing prices have gone by by 33%, and they're still going down. we're not through that crisis. it's a huge crisis that affects everybody because as you say, it's the largest a set on the balance sheet of the average american family, and it's being wiped out! >> the implications of this politically, karl rove has written a piece saying 100,000 fewer votes from african- americans in north carolina could wipe away the gains the president needs. and hispanics in that same
survey are the hardest hit group by the recession. and that comes at the same time they have the most -- the growth clout as a political force. will they be more politically engage next year and again the democrats -- >> pat, these statistics that we put you on the board on the wealth of blacks and whites are so worrisome that barack obama ought to put out a policy for black -- agenda for black americans. would than a bad move or good move? >> terrible move for this reason -- the white working class has been hammered completely, again their aspirations and hopes for the future are going down. they're the most alienated of any groups of americans, they're line the teapot movement. if you do something for heavens sake, do it for all americans! >> 400 topperrers in this country make as much as the
black, white and hispanics. >> so that's where -- it's a huge disparity. >> i think -- >> great unfairness, and -- >> i think you're minimizing the gap between blacks and whites on this. you're minimizing it. >> everywhere in the society. >> exit question, november 12, 15 months from now, will african-american voters be as energized as they were in 2008 to vote for obama? >> mccain got the same share of the black vote as david duke did in louisiana, 4%. obama will get 90% of the african-american vote, but it will not be as energized or cop out in the numbers and enthusiasm it did. >> not at energized, but they'll be energized enough because what will happen over next year, a lot of them will take personally. >> they will stay home. what about you? >> i think they'll vote perhaps not in the same numbers as they did the first time around. >> over 90%? i don't think it will be 90%. but he'll get a think -- he won't get the same kind of percentage of support, it will be very close. >> i think it will be over 90%,
but the turnout won't be as great. obama's unlikely ally here is the republican field right now. depending on who gets nominated. and if they nominate something scary, i'm not going to name names, but that will energize the lasts -- >> the answer is -- [everyone talking at once] >> the answer is get the average of these four and figure it out. we'll be right back with predictions!